Global easing is expected to heat up, and China’s monetary policy space is further opened.

2025年9月12日 | admin | news

　　Recently, the COVID-19 epidemic has spread in many countries around the world, causing market concerns about corporate performance and economic growth. The Federal Reserve announced that it would cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 1% & mdash; 1.25% range, this is the first time the Fed has cut interest rates this year. China’s central bank did not follow suit and suspended the open market operation. Experts believe that China has guided the interest rate reduction in advance, and there is still room for monetary policy.

　　At 23: 00 Beijing time on March 3, the Federal Reserve suddenly lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.00%— 1.25%, while reducing the excess reserve ratio (IOER) by 50 basis points to 1.1%.　

　　Although the Fed cut interest rates three times last year, the relevant decisions were made by the interest rate meeting. The sudden announcement of interest rate cuts exceeded market expectations. Subsequently, the UAE and Saudi Arabia announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut; On the morning of March 4th, Beijing time, the HKMA in Hong Kong and Macau also announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut.

　　On March 4th, the People’s Bank of China suspended its open market operation. Experts in the industry believe that in response to the COVID-19 epidemic, China has guided the interest rate reduction ahead of schedule, and there is still room for monetary policy.

　　Multinational central banks start to cut interest rates.

　　The United States is not the first country to start cutting interest rates.

　　Before the Fed cut interest rates, central banks in Australia, Malaysia and other countries announced interest rate cuts.　

　　Earlier, the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations have already appeared, but the market expects the Fed to announce this decision at the interest rate meeting in March. The sudden announcement of interest rate cuts outside the interest rate meeting exceeded market expectations.　

　　It is not uncommon for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates since last year. Although this is the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2020, it is also the fourth interest rate cut operation since last year. The previous three interest rate cuts occurred in July, September and October of 2019.

　　Judging from the operation in the history of the Federal Reserve, it is rare to cut interest rates urgently. Ming Ming, chief researcher of fixed income of CITIC Securities, said that the Fed chose to cut interest rates urgently, usually when it encountered a major risk event. Since 1994, there have been nine emergency interest rate cuts in the history of the Federal Reserve. The latest emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve dates back to October 8, 2008, because the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered concerns about economic recession. In the 11 years since then, the Fed has not taken similar actions. Therefore, it is clearly believed that the announcement of the emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this time may mean that the assessment of the current risk state within the Federal Reserve has reached a certain level.

　　　The Fed’s interest rate cut quickly triggered a wave of "following" interest rate cuts. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia immediately announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut. China’s Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions adopted the linked exchange rate system, so they also announced interest rate cuts soon. On March 4th, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that it would cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.50%, and said that it would continue to pay attention to market conditions, maintain the orderly operation of Hong Kong’s currency and foreign exchange markets, and ensure the stability of Hong Kong’s currency according to the linked exchange rate system. The Macao Monetary Authority also announced on March 4th that it would lower the basic interest rate of the discount window by 50 basis points to 1.50%. The Macao Monetary Authority said that since the Macao pataca is linked to the Hong Kong dollar, in order to maintain the effective operation of the linked exchange rate system between Hong Kong and Macao, the policy interest rate changes of the two places must be basically the same. Therefore, the Macao Monetary Authority followed the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to adjust its basic interest rate synchronously.

　　Loose expectations have been warming up around the world. Recently, the Bank of Japan purchased a record 101.4 billion yen ETF on March 2, and said that it would provide sufficient liquidity to the market through appropriate market operations and asset acquisition to ensure the stability of the financial market; The European Central Bank also expressed its readiness to take appropriate and targeted measures and take corresponding actions against potential risks if necessary.

　　Monetary policy is based on me.

　　After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, China’s central bank did not follow suit and suspended open market operations.　

　　On March 4th, the central bank announced that the total amount of liquidity in the banking system is at a reasonable and sufficient level, and no reverse repurchase operation will be carried out today.

　　Color, chief economist of Founder Securities, believes that the COVID-19 epidemic appeared earlier in China, and the China government has taken effective measures to prevent and control the epidemic, such as medium-term lending facility (MLF) "interest rate reduction", reverse repurchase operation, refinancing rediscount, special refinancing, etc., to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and other central banks is a lagging policy after the epidemic. China’s central bank is already a pioneer and does not have to follow.

　　As early as February 1, the central bank made it clear that it would set up a special refinancing loan of 300 billion yuan to provide financial institutions with low-cost funds and support financial institutions to provide credit support at preferential interest rates for enterprises. Before the financial market opened on February 3, the central bank predicted the timing and scale of liquidity in advance. Subsequently, on February 3 and 4, the central bank put sufficient supply liquidity into the market, and the accumulated liquidity in the two days reached 1.7 trillion yuan, which exceeded market expectations.

　　At the same time, China took the lead in "cutting interest rates", but different from the Fed’s interest rate cut, China guided the open market operating interest rate, MLF interest rate and LPR quotation to be lowered in a "relay" manner. On February 3rd, while carrying out a record 1.2 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, the interest rates of the current 7-day and 14-day reverse repurchase operations both dropped by 10 basis points, which exceeded market expectations. On February 17th, the winning bid rate of the 200 billion MLF operation carried out by the People’s Bank of China was lowered by 10 basis points; On February 20th, the one-year LPR decreased by 10 basis points to 4.05%, and the one-year LPR decreased by 5 basis points to 4.75%.

"In the short term, China’s central bank may not follow up simultaneously for the time being." Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, believes that in the past two or three years, China’s monetary policy has been relatively independent, and decisions will be made according to its own economic situation, inflation level, employment situation and other factors. No matter whether the Fed raises interest rates or cuts interest rates, China has not made simultaneous adjustments for the first time.

　　For example, at the end of July last year, when the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut, China did not follow suit, and also suspended the open market operation on the same day.

　　There is room for countercyclical regulation

　　"The global restart of loose operation also provides space for the adjustment of China’s monetary policy in the next stage." Wen Bin said.
　
　　Obviously, the further easing of global monetary policy has opened up space for domestic monetary policy. Compared with Europe and America, the Bank of China has more room for conventional monetary policy easing.

　　Recently, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, said in an interview with the media that as one of the few countries in the major economies to implement normalized monetary policy, China still has sufficient monetary policy space and sufficient reserves in the toolbox, so it is confident and capable of hedging the impact of the epidemic.

　　Under this premise, the expectation of lowering the benchmark deposit interest rate has also increased, but the market is still controversial.

　　Liu Guoqiang said that the benchmark deposit interest rate is the "ballast stone" of China’s interest rate system, and it will be kept for a long time. In the future, it will be adjusted in a timely and appropriate manner according to the deployment of the State Council, taking into account the fundamental conditions such as economic growth and price level.

　　However, it has been pointed out recently that lowering MLF and other methods should be used to drive down the financing cost of the real economy. At this time, lowering the benchmark deposit interest rate is a "turning back" in the interest rate marketization process. Many economists also believe that the effect of lowering the benchmark deposit interest rate may be limited.

　　In this regard, Wen Bin believes that it is residents and corporate deposits that really affect bank costs, accounting for more than 60% of bank liabilities. The change of MLF interest rate is more to convey the intention of monetary policy, which has limited effect on reducing the overall debt cost of banks, not to mention the frequent change of MLF interest rate. The high capital cost of banks also restricts the downward trend of LPR. Therefore, it is very necessary and urgent to lower the deposit interest rate, and we can’t think that lowering the deposit interest rate is the retrogression of interest rate marketization. On the contrary, the central bank’s "anchoring" of the deposit benchmark interest rate is still the core element and proper meaning of monetary policy.　

　　Liu Guoqiang said that next, targeted cuts to required reserve ratios will be selected for the banks that meet the service standards in inclusive finance in 2019 to release long-term liquidity. Recently, the COVID-19 epidemic has spread in many countries around the world, causing market concerns about corporate performance and economic growth. The Federal Reserve announced that it would cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 1% & mdash; 1.25% range, this is the first time the Fed has cut interest rates this year. China’s central bank did not follow suit and suspended the open market operation. Experts believe that China has guided the interest rate reduction in advance, and there is still room for monetary policy.

　　At 23: 00 Beijing time on March 3, the Federal Reserve suddenly lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.00%— 1.25%, while reducing the excess reserve ratio (IOER) by 50 basis points to 1.1%.

　　Although the Fed cut interest rates three times last year, the relevant decisions were made by the interest rate meeting. The sudden announcement of interest rate cuts exceeded market expectations. Subsequently, the UAE and Saudi Arabia announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut; On the morning of March 4th, Beijing time, the HKMA in Hong Kong and Macau also announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut.

　　On March 4th, the People’s Bank of China suspended its open market operation. Experts in the industry believe that in response to the COVID-19 epidemic, China has guided the interest rate reduction ahead of schedule, and there is still room for monetary policy.

　　　Multinational central banks start to cut interest rates.

　　The United States is not the first country to start cutting interest rates.

　　Before the Fed cut interest rates, central banks in Australia, Malaysia and other countries announced interest rate cuts.

　　Earlier, the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations have already appeared, but the market expects the Fed to announce this decision at the interest rate meeting in March. The sudden announcement of interest rate cuts outside the interest rate meeting exceeded market expectations.

　　It is not uncommon for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates since last year. Although this is the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2020, it is also the fourth interest rate cut operation since last year. The previous three interest rate cuts occurred in July, September and October of 2019.

　　Judging from the operation in the history of the Federal Reserve, it is rare to cut interest rates urgently. Ming Ming, chief researcher of fixed income of CITIC Securities, said that the Fed chose to cut interest rates urgently, usually when it encountered a major risk event. Since 1994, there have been nine emergency interest rate cuts in the history of the Federal Reserve. The latest emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve dates back to October 8, 2008, because the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered concerns about economic recession. In the 11 years since then, the Fed has not taken similar actions. Therefore, it is clearly believed that the announcement of the emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this time may mean that the assessment of the current risk state within the Federal Reserve has reached a certain level.

　　The Fed’s interest rate cut quickly triggered a wave of "following" interest rate cuts. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia immediately announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut. China’s Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions adopted the linked exchange rate system, so they also announced interest rate cuts soon. On March 4th, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that it would cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.50%, and said that it would continue to pay attention to market conditions, maintain the orderly operation of Hong Kong’s currency and foreign exchange markets, and ensure the stability of Hong Kong’s currency according to the linked exchange rate system. The Macao Monetary Authority also announced on March 4th that it would lower the basic interest rate of the discount window by 50 basis points to 1.50%. The Macao Monetary Authority said that since the Macao pataca is linked to the Hong Kong dollar, in order to maintain the effective operation of the linked exchange rate system between Hong Kong and Macao, the policy interest rate changes of the two places must be basically the same. Therefore, the Macao Monetary Authority followed the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to adjust its basic interest rate synchronously.

　　Loose expectations have been warming up around the world. Recently, the Bank of Japan purchased a record 101.4 billion yen ETF on March 2, and said that it would provide sufficient liquidity to the market through appropriate market operations and asset acquisition to ensure the stability of the financial market; The European Central Bank also expressed its readiness to take appropriate and targeted measures and take corresponding actions against potential risks if necessary.

　　Monetary policy is based on me.

　　After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, China’s central bank did not follow suit and suspended open market operations.

　　On March 4th, the central bank announced that the total amount of liquidity in the banking system is at a reasonable and sufficient level, and no reverse repurchase operation will be carried out today.　

　　Color, chief economist of Founder Securities, believes that the COVID-19 epidemic appeared earlier in China, and the China government has taken effective measures to prevent and control the epidemic, such as medium-term lending facility (MLF) "interest rate reduction", reverse repurchase operation, refinancing rediscount, special refinancing, etc., to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and other central banks is a lagging policy after the epidemic. China’s central bank is already a pioneer and does not have to follow.

　　As early as February 1, the central bank made it clear that it would set up a special refinancing loan of 300 billion yuan to provide financial institutions with low-cost funds and support financial institutions to provide credit support at preferential interest rates for enterprises. Before the financial market opened on February 3, the central bank predicted the timing and scale of liquidity in advance. Subsequently, on February 3 and 4, the central bank put sufficient supply liquidity into the market, and the accumulated liquidity in the two days reached 1.7 trillion yuan, which exceeded market expectations.

　　At the same time, China took the lead in "cutting interest rates", but different from the Fed’s interest rate cut, China guided the open market operating interest rate, MLF interest rate and LPR quotation to be lowered in a "relay" manner. On February 3rd, while carrying out a record 1.2 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, the interest rates of the current 7-day and 14-day reverse repurchase operations both dropped by 10 basis points, which exceeded market expectations. On February 17th, the winning bid rate of the 200 billion MLF operation carried out by the People’s Bank of China was lowered by 10 basis points; On February 20th, the one-year LPR decreased by 10 basis points to 4.05%, and the one-year LPR decreased by 5 basis points to 4.75%.　

"In the short term, China’s central bank may not follow up simultaneously for the time being." Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, believes that in the past two or three years, China’s monetary policy has been relatively independent, and decisions will be made according to its own economic situation, inflation level, employment situation and other factors. No matter whether the Fed raises interest rates or cuts interest rates, China has not made simultaneous adjustments for the first time.

　　For example, at the end of July last year, when the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut, China did not follow suit, and also suspended the open market operation on the same day.

　　There is room for countercyclical regulation

　　"The global restart of loose operation also provides space for the adjustment of China’s monetary policy in the next stage." Wen Bin said.

　　Obviously, the further easing of global monetary policy has opened up space for domestic monetary policy. Compared with Europe and America, the Bank of China has more room for conventional monetary policy easing.　

　　Recently, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, said in an interview with the media that as one of the few countries in the major economies to implement normalized monetary policy, China still has sufficient monetary policy space and sufficient reserves in the toolbox, so it is confident and capable of hedging the impact of the epidemic.　

　　Under this premise, the expectation of lowering the benchmark deposit interest rate has also increased, but the market is still controversial.

　　Liu Guoqiang said that the benchmark deposit interest rate is the "ballast stone" of China’s interest rate system, and it will be kept for a long time. In the future, it will be adjusted in a timely and appropriate manner according to the deployment of the State Council, taking into account the fundamental conditions such as economic growth and price level.　

　　However, it has been pointed out recently that lowering MLF and other methods should be used to drive down the financing cost of the real economy. At this time, lowering the benchmark deposit interest rate is a "turning back" in the interest rate marketization process. Many economists also believe that the effect of lowering the benchmark deposit interest rate may be limited.

　　In this regard, Wen Bin believes that it is residents and corporate deposits that really affect bank costs, accounting for more than 60% of bank liabilities. The change of MLF interest rate is more to convey the intention of monetary policy, which has limited effect on reducing the overall debt cost of banks, not to mention the frequent change of MLF interest rate. The high capital cost of banks also restricts the downward trend of LPR. Therefore, it is very necessary and urgent to lower the deposit interest rate, and we can’t think that lowering the deposit interest rate is the retrogression of interest rate marketization. On the contrary, the central bank’s "anchoring" of the deposit benchmark interest rate is still the core element and proper meaning of monetary policy.　

　　Liu Guoqiang said that next, targeted cuts to required reserve ratios will be selected for the banks that meet the service standards in inclusive finance in 2019 to release long-term liquidity.