?Editor’s　Note:

Novel coronavirus is spreading around the world at an alarming rate, but we should not be surprised. Globalization has brought systemic risks. As the links between trade, finance, tourism, internet and other fields become closer and larger, they also become more complex and unstable.

Edward Lorenz, the father of chaos theory, pointed out that a butterfly flapping its wings over Brazil may trigger a tornado in Texas, USA. The increasingly integrated and complicated global economy makes it more vulnerable to the consequences of "Butterfly Defect". For example, major airport hubs are powerful promoters of the positive effects of globalization, but they are also powerful communicators of the negative effects of globalization, and one of the "public hazards" they spread is epidemic diseases.

The PUP author from Oxford University, who is to be introduced to you today, warned governments in a book published six years ago that the systemic risks brought by globalization would threaten all of us, and the next global crisis would probably stem from the widespread epidemic of a disease.

The extensive connection of people leads to health risks

The density and intensity of contact between people and between people and animals are the decisive factors for the development and spread of epidemic diseases. In 1967, Stanley Milgram conducted an experiment to quantify global connectivity. He found that people can meet any stranger through at most six people.

In 2011, Facebook analyzed its 721 million users worldwide, trying to find out how many steps it takes to establish contact between any two people. It turns out that even though users are separated by thousands of miles, any two users only need 4.7 "friends" on average to be connected.

Population growth and the expansion of travel scope, coupled with the intentional or unintentional transshipment of animals (mice on board or mosquitoes on the plane), have rapidly increased the risk of epidemic spread. As we saw in the SARS epidemic in 2003, a toxic pathogen usually only needs short contact to infect someone and spread it. This makes airplanes and international travel become vectors of disease transmission.

High concentration of people raises health risks.

In 2025, the proportion of urban population in the world is expected to rise to 70%. The population density in Tokyo is as high as 5,847 people per square kilometer, and one in every 25 people lives in a mega-city, so it is necessary to "monitor, prepare and respond to infectious diseases". This practice is very important everywhere, especially in places with high population density and poor sanitary conditions, places where people are in close contact with animals, and places where water sources are easily polluted.

The risk of agglomeration will also amplify the connectivity risk within urban agglomerations and around the world, especially because major airport hubs are often located next to these cities. If an infectious disease originated in a metropolis, it is almost impossible to stop it from spreading around the world. Large cities are also usually inhabited by floating population and businessmen connected with other continents.

Gossip and Panic —— Information Management in Epidemic Prevention and Control

Now, all kinds of information and rumors can spread almost instantaneously through the Internet and social media. With this ability, the risk of panic related to infectious diseases has also increased dramatically, which has doubled the complexity of epidemic management.

Information management is essential, because panic may systematically aggravate the danger of the epidemic: during the epidemic prevention and control period, the government needs to control the flow of people and drugs, and if people frantically buy and hoard drugs, masks and other materials out of panic at this time, many important services will be greatly affected by people’s reaction.

When trying to prevent large-scale panic, governments may also choose to suppress some important information. In the social network of the financial world, there is evidence that "individual decision makers usually pay attention to the behaviors, decisions and even beliefs of others who have social contact with them (such as the perception of risks)." It is in this sense that innovation and technology also increase the risk of infectious diseases; In addition to tangible channels of transmission, we also need to be aware of the existence of risks related to "social" infection.

Another challenge comes from the management of the dissemination of sensitive research information. For example, the debate revolves around the US government’s decision to ask the major scientific journals Nature and Science to suspend publishing research on the evolution of H5N1 influenza virus. According to Medical News Today, although these studies were finally published, they were "shelved because the international community was worried that making these data public would make it easier for terrorists to make chemical and biological weapons".

PUP content express:

The Butterfly Defect:　

How Globalization Creates Systemic Risks, and What to Do about It

　

Author: Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan

Publication date: October 20, 2015 (paperback edition)

ISBN:　9780691168425

Highlights of the book

The Butterfly Defect emphasizes the widening gap between the new systemic risks arising from globalization and its effective management. This book shows that the turbocharged globalization power has the potential and power to undermine the stability of our society. Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan borrowed the latest insights from various disciplines and provided practical guidance for governments, enterprises and individuals on how to better cope with globalization and its risks.

Goldin and Mariathasan proved that systemic risk problems are now ubiquitous in supply chain, epidemic, infrastructure, ecology and climate change, economy and politics. Unless we solve these problems, they will lead to greater protectionism, xenophobia, nationalism, and inevitable de-globalization, increased inequality, conflicts and slower development.

The Butterfly Defect shows that in an interconnected world, reducing uncertainty and risk is an important task for our future development.

About the author:

Ian Goldin & Mike Mariathasan

　

Ian Goldin

Dean of Martin College, Oxford University, UK, Professor of Globalization and International Development Department, Oxford University.

Mike Mariathasan

Assistant Professor, Department of Finance, University of Leuven, Belgium

A father’s big hand is a child’s most powerful support. Reporter Qiao Junwei photo

　　Lao Dou, I love you in my heart!

　　Today is Father’s Day, but in the parent-child relationship in Chinese, few children express their love and gratitude to their father in person. According to the survey of Dayang. com, 91.5% people have never said "I love you" to their father’s face!

　　However, in the Father’s Day warm blessing launched by this newspaper yesterday, more than 70 children boldly expressed their feelings through newspapers, telling their fathers: "Dad, I love you!"

　　Yesterday, several fathers and children of different ages were interviewed by reporters, telling the feelings of father and son (daughter) in their hearts: the intimacy between father and son (daughter) when children were young; Adolescence challenges and rebelles against father’s authority; Gradually understand and accept the father after adulthood; After middle age, I empathized with my father … Every story is sincere and touching.

　　Our reporters Huang Rongfang and Shi Shanwei

　　Dad, I want to tell you

　　Silent love always has some regrets.

　　Nini is a 6-year-old first-year student

　　"I often say,’ Dad, I love you’"

　　My father is very strong. Therefore, he hugged me when I was a child, because my mother was weak! Grandma said that when I was a child, my father always took me to sleep at night because my mother worked the night shift. I always wake up in the middle of the night to eat milk, go to the balcony to see the scenery and go downstairs to play. My father makes milk powder for me every night and plays with me in the middle of the night. Grandma said that at that time, my father shook me while sleeping with his eyes closed! Because he is so sleepy!

　　Dad loves telling jokes and has many ideas, so I like playing games with him very much. When I am unhappy, he will say, "I will count to three, and you will definitely laugh!" " However, before counting, he always deliberately said, "Keep your mouth shut! Keep your face tight! I’m going to count! Get ready … "As a result, I can’t help laughing before he starts counting.

　　Now, my father is more and more strict with me. He doesn’t like me crying. Sometimes I dawdle and don’t do my homework, and he will yell at me. Dad always said that my mother spoiled me too much, saying that loving mothers often failed.

　　Unlike mom, dad always says, "Baby, I love you so much!" " He doesn’t say such disgusting things very much. He sometimes calls me by my first name instead of my nickname. However, I still feel that he loves me very much Therefore, I will often say to him: "Dad, I love you!" "

　　Iowa is a 16-year-old junior high school student.

　　"My father and I basically have no intersection."

　　My father is in the clothing business in Hengjiao, Baiyun District. He does his business and I go to my school. They are irrelevant. I was introverted since I was a child, and I didn’t like to talk. My grades in primary school were average. Dad’s discipline for me is in the primary school stage, and I have a few words of praise for my good grades; If you don’t do well in the exam, beat you with a stick.

　　When I was in the fifth and sixth grade of primary school, my father began to be indifferent to my grades. Every time he finished the exam, he would only ask, "Did you do well in the exam?" Every time I answer "average", he doesn’t bother to ask. Since junior high school, I have been at the bottom of my class in every exam.

　　Because of my poor grades, my father never held out much hope for me. Now that the senior high school entrance examination is over, I did badly in the exam again. Anyway, there is no hope of attending high school. Dad has planned for me to go to a technical school and major in business English. He said he could do clothing business with him in the future after he graduated from English. Since he has made a decision for me, I don’t have any complaints, so I just chose a technical school in Liwan District and started school in two months. Unfortunately, you can’t live on campus then, but you have to live with your parents.

　　In fact, I know that my father, like my mother, is very kind to me. He remembers my birthday every year and cooks a delicious table every time. When I was in the fifth grade, my father bought me a computer for 8000 yuan. But I don’t think he cares about me, and I seldom talk to him if I’m okay. There is basically no intersection between us.

　　Mr. Zhang is a 45-year-old civil servant

　　"Never let the other person know his inner love."

　　It was only after I became a father that I gradually understood my father, who I had never understood before, and I became more tolerant of my father. But my father is depressed now, and he is clamoring to go to a nursing home, which makes me very sad.

　　When I was young, I always thought that my father was nothing, and even looked down on him, thinking that he had worked all his life and had never made it. It was not until I was middle-aged and had the burden of life that I slowly accepted my ordinary father. I began to ask for his advice on things I had never discussed with him before.

　　A few years ago, my mother died of illness, and my 75-year-old father was like a different person, always losing his temper with his family. When he is alone at home, he drinks to relieve boredom, and he doesn’t drink much. When he drinks a little, he gets drunk, and when he is drunk, he swears everywhere.

　　Last month, my father went to Guangzhou Friendship Apartment for the Aged to see a friend. He saw many old people playing mahjong together, talking and laughing. When he got home, he told me that he would move in. I didn’t agree at first, but when I persuaded him, he got angry and had a "cold war" with our family. Finally, I had to give in and send him to an apartment for the elderly.

　　On the way to send my father to the nursing home, I remembered that when I was still at school, my father sent me to live on campus, and my heart was very unpleasant. I know that my father has always loved us, and we certainly love him. However, we never seem to let each other know this.

　　No matter how busy you are, there must be room for family ties.

　　In the interview, the reporter found that the childhood of children is the golden period of close communication with their fathers. Children at this stage, both men and women, worship and are close to their fathers; The period when the relationship with the father "deteriorates" is the child’s adolescence. At this stage, the children who enter the rebellious period turn from worship to disappointment, and because the father’s discipline of the children is relatively strict than that of the childhood, many children will even have resentment, especially the adolescent son is more likely to "turn against" his father; What is intriguing is that when children are adults, especially when they are parents themselves, their relationship with their fathers will mostly "warm up", and they will gradually understand the hardships and hardships of being parents. When they are in middle age, when they also encounter their children’s adolescence and career setbacks, they will understand their fathers’ feelings in those years and will tolerate and even protect their elderly fathers.

　　Li Ben, an associate researcher at the Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, said that in fact, there is also a "magnetic field" between father and child. "No matter how busy you are, you must leave room for your family." Li said that a warm home can increase a person’s happiness.

　　Son, I want to tell you

　　I hope you always stare at your mobile phone on the phone.

　　Zuo Haoming is 34 years old and the daughter of a company employee is 5 years old.

　　Education is too utilitarian and forgets the communication of the heart.

　　Man is really a strange animal. When your daughter is still in your wife’s belly, what you expect every day is that she can be born healthily and safely. Once your daughter is born smoothly, your biggest concern is that she is smarter than others. As soon as my daughter was full moon, I held her all over the community to play: watch the sunrise and sunset, count the stars to distinguish the moon, divide it into east, west, north and south, climb Baiyun Mountain in heavy rain, swim in the open-air swimming pool against the north wind, and even borrow a fallen leaf and a hydrogen balloon to make up stories for my daughter …

　　As my daughter grew up, I found that the magic of "education" diminished, and my daughter even refused to play with me. Because she doesn’t think it’s fun to be with me. I gradually realized that what my daughter wants most is for me to play and be crazy with her. I pay too much attention to "education" but forget the importance of communication. What is the difference between this and my parents? Looks like I’m not immune either.

　　Wen Tianpeng (pseudonym as required) 46-year-old civil servant’s son is 16 years old.

　　Beat him and scold him, but my heart ached.

　　In fact, in the process of raising my son, I worked as hard as his mother. When my son was a child, I was omnipotent in his mind, and he adored me.

　　My position in my son’s heart has been shaken since he was in the second day of junior high school. He laughed at me for being old-fashioned and complained that I was useless, saying that his classmate’s father had been promoted to director, and I was still a small chief clerk. He surfed the Internet, played truant and fought. I asked him why, but I wouldn’t understand what he said. Maybe too many things go wrong, and my temper is getting worse and worse. Isn’t it true that menopausal fathers are often incompatible with their adolescent sons? We are now. I often scold him, and sometimes I can’t help hitting him. He is also stubborn. He was scolded and went his own way. Looking at his wronged and hateful eyes, my heart ached.

　　Xie Zhiping 75-year-old retiree’s eldest son is 45 years old.

　　I just want to hear my son’s voice.

　　In the past, I was the secretary of the Party Committee in the factory, and I was an "authority" whether in the factory or at home. At that time, because of my busy work, I had little communication with my three sons, so I asked my wife to tell them everything.

　　Things changed from the year I retired. At that time, the two sons had formed a family, and the younger son got married and moved away in the third year of my retirement. I feel empty. A few years later, my wife passed away. Now only on holidays will my children and grandchildren come to see me. I used to be tough, but now I am extremely dependent on my son. If the faucet is broken, I will call my son to fix it. Even if I want to change my hairstyle, I will ask one by one. Actually, I just want to see them and hear their voices. I often stare at my mobile phone in a daze. Sometimes, when my son calls, I am happier than the holidays.

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