Six years ago, he predicted that the next global crisis would stem from an epidemic.

?Editor’s　Note:

Novel coronavirus is spreading around the world at an alarming rate, but we should not be surprised. Globalization has brought systemic risks. As the links between trade, finance, tourism, internet and other fields become closer and larger, they also become more complex and unstable.

Edward Lorenz, the father of chaos theory, pointed out that a butterfly flapping its wings over Brazil may trigger a tornado in Texas, USA. The increasingly integrated and complicated global economy makes it more vulnerable to the consequences of "Butterfly Defect". For example, major airport hubs are powerful promoters of the positive effects of globalization, but they are also powerful communicators of the negative effects of globalization, and one of the "public hazards" they spread is epidemic diseases.

The PUP author from Oxford University, who is to be introduced to you today, warned governments in a book published six years ago that the systemic risks brought by globalization would threaten all of us, and the next global crisis would probably stem from the widespread epidemic of a disease.

The extensive connection of people leads to health risks

The density and intensity of contact between people and between people and animals are the decisive factors for the development and spread of epidemic diseases. In 1967, Stanley Milgram conducted an experiment to quantify global connectivity. He found that people can meet any stranger through at most six people.

In 2011, Facebook analyzed its 721 million users worldwide, trying to find out how many steps it takes to establish contact between any two people. It turns out that even though users are separated by thousands of miles, any two users only need 4.7 "friends" on average to be connected.

Population growth and the expansion of travel scope, coupled with the intentional or unintentional transshipment of animals (mice on board or mosquitoes on the plane), have rapidly increased the risk of epidemic spread. As we saw in the SARS epidemic in 2003, a toxic pathogen usually only needs short contact to infect someone and spread it. This makes airplanes and international travel become vectors of disease transmission.

High concentration of people raises health risks.

In 2025, the proportion of urban population in the world is expected to rise to 70%. The population density in Tokyo is as high as 5,847 people per square kilometer, and one in every 25 people lives in a mega-city, so it is necessary to "monitor, prepare and respond to infectious diseases". This practice is very important everywhere, especially in places with high population density and poor sanitary conditions, places where people are in close contact with animals, and places where water sources are easily polluted.

The risk of agglomeration will also amplify the connectivity risk within urban agglomerations and around the world, especially because major airport hubs are often located next to these cities. If an infectious disease originated in a metropolis, it is almost impossible to stop it from spreading around the world. Large cities are also usually inhabited by floating population and businessmen connected with other continents.

Gossip and Panic —— Information Management in Epidemic Prevention and Control

Now, all kinds of information and rumors can spread almost instantaneously through the Internet and social media. With this ability, the risk of panic related to infectious diseases has also increased dramatically, which has doubled the complexity of epidemic management.

Information management is essential, because panic may systematically aggravate the danger of the epidemic: during the epidemic prevention and control period, the government needs to control the flow of people and drugs, and if people frantically buy and hoard drugs, masks and other materials out of panic at this time, many important services will be greatly affected by people’s reaction.

When trying to prevent large-scale panic, governments may also choose to suppress some important information. In the social network of the financial world, there is evidence that "individual decision makers usually pay attention to the behaviors, decisions and even beliefs of others who have social contact with them (such as the perception of risks)." It is in this sense that innovation and technology also increase the risk of infectious diseases; In addition to tangible channels of transmission, we also need to be aware of the existence of risks related to "social" infection.

Another challenge comes from the management of the dissemination of sensitive research information. For example, the debate revolves around the US government’s decision to ask the major scientific journals Nature and Science to suspend publishing research on the evolution of H5N1 influenza virus. According to Medical News Today, although these studies were finally published, they were "shelved because the international community was worried that making these data public would make it easier for terrorists to make chemical and biological weapons".

PUP content express:

The Butterfly Defect:　

How Globalization Creates Systemic Risks, and What to Do about It

　

Author: Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan

Publication date: October 20, 2015 (paperback edition)

ISBN:　9780691168425

Highlights of the book

The Butterfly Defect emphasizes the widening gap between the new systemic risks arising from globalization and its effective management. This book shows that the turbocharged globalization power has the potential and power to undermine the stability of our society. Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan borrowed the latest insights from various disciplines and provided practical guidance for governments, enterprises and individuals on how to better cope with globalization and its risks.

Goldin and Mariathasan proved that systemic risk problems are now ubiquitous in supply chain, epidemic, infrastructure, ecology and climate change, economy and politics. Unless we solve these problems, they will lead to greater protectionism, xenophobia, nationalism, and inevitable de-globalization, increased inequality, conflicts and slower development.

The Butterfly Defect shows that in an interconnected world, reducing uncertainty and risk is an important task for our future development.

About the author:

Ian Goldin & Mike Mariathasan

　

Ian Goldin

Dean of Martin College, Oxford University, UK, Professor of Globalization and International Development Department, Oxford University.

Mike Mariathasan

Assistant Professor, Department of Finance, University of Leuven, Belgium