Automobile industry： survive first, then talk about others.

After the Spring Festival, I have almost visited all the car companies in China. The collective feedback from everyone is that the car industry has never been so involved.

Let me say something first:

I don’t need to say that the price of old cars is reduced. Now it’s blood shed. Tesla that is nothing, 7-prefix sylphy, 9-prefix mixing, Wuhan subsidizing 9w, and so on.

Don’t ask car companies if they have any profits. What we only care about now is how much cash reserves can withstand the price reduction and how much sales can be stimulated after the price reduction?

2. Adjust the rhythm of new cars, especially trams. Tesla’s price reduction has caused many tram brands to fall into meditation. Originally, they thought that stacking materials could solve the problem of differential competition. In the face of similar prices, the balance of brands and configurations once again tilted towards Tesla. Tesla’s Model 3/Model Y has now become a variable coordinate-you don’t know when it will change.

3. In fact, the automobile industry in China has become a cost dispute. I always think that Tesla is not the only solution for electric vehicles, and the extended range cost is more than 10,000 yuan. The solution that can replace the 30-40 degree battery is a unique opportunity for China’s manufacturing industry. After the extended range tram entered the 15w range, I admitted that I still took the clothes.

When have you ever seen a whole market collapse, even high-end cars can’t move? When have you ever seen a market that is crazy about brands and MSRP? You have met all of them this year. Remember I said that the crisis is not 2021 or 2022. Don’t talk about hope divorced from reality, and don’t sing praises regardless of the data, because 2023 is the really critical autumn.

So, what is the underlying logic behind this? Is to survive.

This is exactly the same as the real estate industry a few years ago. It is hard to imagine what will happen to our economic life if the real estate, finance and export troika decline and the automobile industry declines.

My back is cold.

Why did everyone suddenly encounter a crisis of survival? It may not be appropriate to talk too much. Let me briefly express my thoughts:

1. The car produced last year is sealed and cannot be sold;

2. The common people don’t feel ashamed when they say they are poor, and the local government doesn’t hide when they say they are poor;

3. At the end of the year, in order to complete a certain task, some car companies will be rushed and pressed, and dealers can’t stand it. If they don’t cut prices, they will be crazy;

4. The boundaries of enterprises.

Predict this year’s situation is like this:

1. When the turning point of luxury brands comes, people who can afford luxury brands will continue to exist a few years ago, but luxury brands are slowly beginning to find it difficult to provide enough product charm. Technology equality means that both big bosses and interns use iPhone14, and their experiences will not be much different. It is likely that the new smart tram will meet the demand of BBA: of course, the Range Rover G is an exception, but the big G has also gone down, and I am one of the wrongdoers.

2. New energy may not be a triumphant upward song, but it is also inevitable that it will be reorganized after several years of fire. Without Tesla’s price reduction, this year’s reorganization will be more moderate.

The pattern of "three for the big" may change. It is unknown whether Tucki can hold on to it. Xiaomi is a little late, but there must be a seat for him in this position. And whether retail Nezha can do a good job in sales and financial data is a change in the tram pattern.

3. Don’t forget the Liuzhou model. Chasing high is a collective problem in China’s automobile industry. Even if it is done so well today, some people walk and forget the market. If the high-end has a sense of security, Toyota has died 800 times.

Wuling doesn’t play 800V silicon carbide, and can’t afford 400V IGBT. 100V mosfit is enough, and it’s ok if it’s not car-regulated. You can also play with a cruising range of 200km. These actions are based on the travel scene, thinking that the origin is right, and path dependence does not exist. I think there will be a bigger breakthrough in industrial scale.

By the way, the BYD model, don’t put too much pressure on BYD. No one will admit the sentence of annual sales of 4 million, but it will be better for BYD to make some smooth adjustments, otherwise who will eat such a large increase? On second thought, I’m extremely afraid that a private enterprise will eat several at a time after eating the share of state-owned enterprises. Do you think this matter should be worth pondering?

4. The joint venture is finished, and the daily output has dropped to 70,000. The other day, I heard that LaVida won the Geely Emgrand at the price of a bicycle with the prefix "5". It’s finished … Honda’s share has dropped by 30%. It is the iron law of the automobile industry that it is worse than Japan for many years. Every time it goes down, Toyota Honda has maintained a reasonable growth, and the Normandy defense has actually broken this year …

5. Don’t be too happy to be independent. Although every household has a growth rate of 20-30%, it is estimated that the competition pattern in the next five years will be to grab the top three. For the top three, several independent brands will be extremely fierce this year. Therefore, the other day, I saw an industry call for China brands to work together, which was just like a joke.

This year, the competition of independent brands is that the bayonet sees the red eye, and those who really kill the red eye will not take into account the "friendship between the rivers and lakes". Therefore, the association wanted to do a "happy reunion" the day before, and the lawyers met with each other the day after.

This is good. I like this real competition. This is the normal state. Now, at this juncture, I still pretend to sit down and talk about wine and wine. This has to be burned to 45℃ before it can be done.

I want to say a few more words about the competition of independent brands: this is a copy of it more than ten years ago. If you win the market, you can survive. Brands and profits are not important. I said, "Market share is the brand, and price is the height". If you win the share, it’s no problem to play high-end. Don’t always look at the automobile industry. Isn’t that how the Internet works?

The point of view written to the insiders is: sharpen your thinking, don’t grasp so much, it may be more appropriate to listen to others less, and only do what we can get quick results.

The advice to fans is: buy when you should. In the past, when I was filming a test drive, you always said that some cars were not worth it, but this year, the price dropped like this, and I felt my conscience and said that even these cars became fragrant.

Overcome the difficulties and buy a car to serve the country, hahahaha.